xG Explained: Expected Goals in Simple Words

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a chance: a shot from the penalty spot converts about 76% of the time, so it carries 0.76 xG; a thirty-yard screamer might carry 0.03. Add every chance in a match and you get each team’s xG — the number of goals they deserved. Our Golden Boot timing zones mimic the idea: dead-centre timing is a 0.9 chance, a rushed tap is 0.2. Watch xG, not just scorelines.